As forecast in my May and April market reports, June’s resale housing data points to a positive upward trajectory – it’s positive, but it’s also mild. It’s not only mild but also very uneven.
On the positive side, June saw 6,770 reported sales, 9.4 percent higher than the 6,191 reported sales a year ago. More positive still, June’s sales numbers have driven 2026’s year-to-date numbers past the year-to-date sales numbers for the same period of 2025. At the mid-point of 2025, the Toronto and Region Real Estate Board reported that 30,844 homes had changed hands. As of the end of this June, 31,149 buyers will be enjoying their new homes.
Based on the pace of resales in the Toronto Region, the industry should report approximately 63,000 sales by year-end. This is an improvement over 2025 (62,316), but, unfortunately, only a marginal improvement. It is conceivable that dramatic, positive changes on the geopolitical front during the second half of the year could boost that number higher, closer to 65,000 reported sales, but even if that were to happen, 2026 will not be the market recovery year that was anticipated. In fact, by historical standards, 2026 will see fewer sales than were achieved in 1996, thirty years ago, when Greater Toronto’s population was approximately half of today’s size. In 1996, 65,760 properties traded hands.
Aside from the geopolitical tensions that have negatively impacted consumer certainty, affordability is also preventing the acceleration of property sales. In June, the average sale price for all properties sold came in at $1,058,658. Even though June’s average sale price declined by almost 4 percent compared to the same period in 2025, it doesn’t fully and accurately represent the numbers buyers are looking at.
Based on prevailing borrowing costs – currently 5-year uninsurable fixed mortgage rates are running at 4.5 percent – ground-level properties remain pricey. It’s not surprising, therefore, that reported sales in June were uneven, both by price point and by region.
In June, sales in the 905 region increased by 10.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. In Toronto’s 416 districts, sales increased by only 2.8 percent. Why? Price point and affordability.
The average price for all properties sold in Toronto’s 416 districts was $1,137,500, but does not accurately reflect that 46 percent of the 2,423 properties sold were condominium apartments, the least expensive housing type. By contrast, the average sale price for all properties sold in the 905 region for June came in at only $876,500. This represents a $261,000 affordability delta between the City of Toronto and the 905 region.
A look at condominium apartment sales for June further highlights the affordability delta. Sales of condominium apartments in both Toronto’s 416 districts and the 905 region increased by 14.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. Shockingly, the greatest price drops by housing type in June were condominium apartments. The average sale price of condominium apartments in Toronto’s 416 districts declined by 9 percent compared to June 2025 to $665,700. The decline in the 905 region was even greater. Condominium apartment average sale prices declined by 10.6 percent to $563,874. Classic negative counterbalancing.
Inventory levels continue to decrease. In June, only 17,282 properties came to market, almost 13 percent fewer than last June’s 19,847. As we head into the second half of 2026, buyers will have 27,329 properties to choose from, 13.5 percent less than last year at this time. Although inventory levels are declining, they are still elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. In June of 2019, there were only 19,655 properties available to buyers, 28 percent fewer available homes than this June. Based on the current level of sales, there are 4 months of inventory. In June of 2019, there were only 2.2 months of inventory. Very much a seller’s market.
Looking ahead, we do so positively, but with caution. Average sale prices have retracted, but not to the point, excluding condominium apartments, that they have become affordable. Last June, the average sale price was $1,101,854 for all properties sold, almost 4 percent higher than today. At the frenzied peak of the pandemic, in early 2022, the average sale price was approximately $1,300,000. Aside from the many emotional factors fueling sales at that time, the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate was only 0.5 percent. It’s now 2.25 percent.
Sales volumes are improving alongside improved consumer confidence, particularly as the geopolitical tensions generated by the conflict in the Middle East diminish. The free flow of oil will also have the effect of lowering inflation, which combined with an increase in consumer confidence, will translate into continued sales growth as we move into the second half of 2026. That growth will be modest, but it will be a growth that leads to the reversal of the stagnant residential resale market we have been in for three years.
